Syracuse is fighting for their 6th victory at home in the Carrier Dome and they'll need to beat a hot Boston College team that suddenly has a Heisman Trophy candidate. Andrew Williams has 2,073 rushing yards and BC will run the ball 66% of the time and when they do pass it they will pass the ball to Alex Amidon 50% of the time. Not a hard offense to figure out which is why they have issues in the red zone and on third down converting only 29% of their 3rd down attempts in conference play and 40% of ther red zone attempts on the road.
Syracuse has a good recipe to come up with the upset in their own building. Syracuse has a nasty front 7 that's capable of dominating a running game. They've only allowed 2.64 ypc at home and only 4 rushing TD's, but what is more impressive is they have not allowed a single running back to get over 100 yards all year long. Marquis Spurill, Cameron Lynch and Dyshawn Davis will have their eyes on Williams all day long. On the flip side Syracuse needs to run the ball to win and BC is allowing 4.21 ypc on the road. The twin duo of Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gulley and the threat of Terrel Hunt running will be enough to move the ball and pick up first downs. This team is better at picking up third downs and in the red zone. BC is allowing 74% red zone TD % on the road this year and they are completely one dimensional. Chase Rettig is a good QB at home, but on the road he's just not good. Syracuse is allowing 145 less yards at home than BC is on the road and I don't think they should be favorites.
Illinois strength is passing the ball, but late November is no time to be throwing hte ball in the swirling winds that will rule the Chicago air. Northwestern is excellent in stopping the run and they are great at running the ball led by Treyvon Green who is averaging 5.70 ypc. Add in Cain Kolter who should play tomorrow and you have a recipe for success when you talk about how bad Illinois is on defense. Illinois is allowing 5.65 ypc and they have allowed 29 TD, and they can't stop the pass or turn you over either allowing 21 TD to just 3 INT on the year.
Illinois also comes off their first win in Big Ten play in over 2 years meanwhile Northwestern is trying to get their first win in Big Ten play all year. I have been impressed with this Northwestern team they have gone 0-7 in conference play and all 7 teams have a winning record and now they get a cupcake. Every tough loss they bounced back and were in the next game and I expect nothing less from a Pat Fitzgerald coached team here on Saturday. They won't be going to a bowl game, but they absolutely want to win a conference game and this is just too juicy to pass up. Northwestern is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 following a home double digit loss. Northwestern should win this by double digits but even if they shoot themselves in the foot again Illinois is not capable at all.
